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Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 delivered above-consensus revenue and EPS, driven by momentum at Tim Hortons and International, disciplined cost control, and continued U.S. Burger King outperformance; Total revenues were $2.45B vs consensus $2.39B (beat) and Adjusted EPS was $1.03 vs consensus ~$1.00 (beat). CEO highlighted “strong quarter” with 8.8% organic AOI growth and reaffirmed “at least 8%” organic AOI growth for 2025 . Consensus values marked with asterisk are from S&P Global estimates.*
  • Mix was constructive: TH and INTL (≈70% of earnings) posted solid comps and AOI growth; BK U.S. comps +3.2% with continued category outperformance; PLK comps remained negative, and RH (Carrols BK, PLK China, FHS Brazil) AOI declined on beef inflation and wage pressure .
  • Guidance: 2025 Segment G&A (ex-RH) $600–$620M, RH G&A ≈$100M, Adjusted interest expense ≈$520M reiterated; Total Capex & Cash Inducements trimmed to “around $400M” (from $400–$450M) .
  • Key swing factors: Elevated U.S. beef costs pressured BK margins (franchisee P&L headwind), but management expects normalization; Q4 organic AOI set to benefit from lapping prior-year ad fund expense and bad-debt items; October U.S. demand noted as choppier, but global diversification supports FY outlook .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Tim Hortons Canada: 4.2% comps with record beverage sales and strength in breakfast/PM dayparts; TH AOI +6.8% YoY to $304M, with cost discipline lowering Segment G&A; CEO: “Tim Hortons…continues to exemplify what happens when you get the fundamentals right” .
  • International: System-wide sales growth +12.1% and comps +6.5%; INTL AOI +14.4% to $189M; management cited share gains in Europe and improved BK China comps (+10.5%) as strategic validation .
  • Burger King U.S.: Comps +3.2% with category outperformance; BK segment AOI +9.0% to $123M aided by the non-recurrence of $8M “Fuel the Flame” costs and lower G&A; CEO: “The benefits of this work are showing up in solid absolute results and sales outperformance versus the burger QSR segment” .

What Went Wrong

  • Popeyes comps: Global comps -2.4% (U.S. -2.0%), with management acknowledging inconsistent operations and the need to refocus on core platforms; AOI basically flat YoY at $63M .
  • Restaurant Holdings (Carrols BK, PLK China, FHS Brazil): AOI fell to $10M (from $16M) on higher beef costs and wages; advertising contribution rate step-up also weighed; CFO: BK Carrols margins pressured by beef, expect similar RH AOI drag in Q4 from early-stage China/Brazil investments .
  • U.S. macro: Management flagged a “choppier” October start domestically, though reiterated confidence in delivering ≥8% organic AOI growth for 2025 given international strength and cost discipline .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results by Quarter and Prior Year

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$2,291 $2,109 $2,410 $2,449
Income from Operations ($USD Millions)$577 $435 $483 $663
Diluted EPS – Continuing Ops (GAAP)$0.79 $0.49 $0.58 $0.96
Adjusted Diluted EPS$0.93 $0.75 $0.94 $1.03
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$748 $642 $762 $794

Q3 2025 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus*

MetricActualConsensus*Surprise
Revenues ($USD Billions)$2.449 $2.390*Beat
Adjusted EPS ($)$1.03 ~$1.00*Beat
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$794 (Adj. EBITDA reported by company) $795 (EBITDA Consensus Mean)*In line (note definitional differences)

Footnote: Consensus metrics marked with asterisk are from S&P Global; EBITDA consensus may not be directly comparable to company-reported Adjusted EBITDA.*

Segment Breakdown (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

SegmentTotal Revenues Q3’24 ($M)Q3’25 ($M)AOI Q3’24 ($M)AOI Q3’25 ($M)
Tim Hortons (TH)$1,044 $1,125 $284 $304
Burger King (BK)$362 $387 $112 $123
Popeyes (PLK)$195 $201 $62 $63
Firehouse Subs (FHS)$53 $60 $12 $14
International (INTL)$243 $268 $166 $189
Restaurant Holdings (RH)$441 $459 $16 $10

KPIs and Comps

KPIQ3 2024Q3 2025
System-wide Sales ($B)$11.433 $12.282
System-wide Sales Growth3.2% 6.9%
Global Comparable Sales0.3% 4.0%
TH Canada Comparable Sales2.7% 4.2%
BK U.S. Comparable Sales(0.4%) 3.2%
BK International Comparable Sales1.9% 6.4%
Net Restaurant Growth (TTM)3.8% 2.8%
System Restaurants (Period End)31,525 32,423

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q2’25)Current Guidance (Q3’25)Change
Segment G&A (ex-RH)FY2025$600–$620M $600–$620M Maintained
RH Segment G&AFY2025≈$100M ≈$100M Maintained
Adjusted Interest Expense, netFY2025≈$520M (updated in Q2) ≈$520M Maintained
Total Capex & Cash InducementsFY2025$400–$450M Around $400M Lowered
Organic AOI GrowthFY20258%+ (reiterated) 8%+ (reiterated) Maintained
TH Supply Chain Gross MarginFY2025/Q4 cadenceNot quantified previously~19% FY; Q4 mid‑17% range (seasonal, inventory cost) New detail (call)
Adjusted Effective Tax RateFY2025Not specified in Q2 PR18–19% (call) New detail (call)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ-2 (Q2’25) MentionsQ-1 (Q1’25) MentionsCurrent Period (Q3’25)Trend
BK U.S. Turnaround (Reclaim the Flame)Ad fund rate step-up; remodels; AOI boost from non-recurrence of “Fuel the Flame” Ad fund to 4.5%; plan to modernize assets, ops U.S. comps +3.2%, category outperformance; 400 remodels in 2025; sizzle image uplift teens; franchisee confidence high Improving
Beef Costs/CommodityNoted inflation; some FX/COGS impacts Tariff-related impacts noted in risks Elevated beef (≈25% of BK U.S. basket) up high-teens YoY; monitoring futures/trade; temporary headwind Near-term headwind, potential easing
International9.8% system sales growth; comps +4.2% 8.6% system sales growth System sales +12.1%; comps +6.5%; share gains in EU; BK China comps +10.5% Accelerating
Tim Hortons (Cold Bev/PM, Digital)TH stable; supply chain driver; FX headwind Focus on value and PM/Cold Bev 4.2% comps; record bev; kiosks to ~800 by year end; new loyalty partnership announced timing Positive momentum
Popeyes U.S. OpsModest comps; stable AOI Comps negative, AOI held via acquisitions Comps -2.0% U.S.; refocus on core, ops consistency; reinvestment and top-operator focus Needs improvement
Portfolio Simplification (RH/China)Refranchising Carrols; BK China held-for-sale BK China classified as held-for-sale On track refranchising 5–100 stores in 2025; BK China sale process active (with MS) Progressing
Macro/US DemandNot highlightedEarly-year slower start U.S. October choppier; diversified AOI supports FY Mixed

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Comparable sales were up 4%, net restaurant growth was 2.8% and system wide sales grew 6.9%…driven by momentum from Tim Hortons and our International business…We remain confident in our path to delivering at least 8% organic AOI growth in 2025” .
  • On BK U.S.: “We’ve outperformed the burger QSR category for many quarters by staying true to our balanced marketing strategy…We’ll maintain this measured approach while keeping our flame grilled burgers at the center of our story” .
  • CFO: “Adjusted EPS increased to $1.03…driven by AOI growth and a $14M YoY decrease in adjusted net interest expense…We ended Q3 with total liquidity of approximately $2.5B and net leverage of 4.4x” .
  • Executive Chairman: “After nearly two years of outperforming the broader QSR burger category, you can feel the turnaround taking hold [at Burger King]” .

Q&A Highlights

  • BK remodels and trajectory: ~400 remodels in 2025; modern image penetration targeted to ~85% by 2028; year-2 uplift ~100bps post-remodel; beef costs may affect pacing but not the long-term plan .
  • Beef inflation and franchisee P&L: Beef ≈25% of BK U.S. commodity basket, prices up high-teens YoY; management expects normalization; monitoring futures and trade dynamics (Argentina/Mexico/Brazil) .
  • Refranchising deconsolidation: “Crown Your Career” refranchising path typically 1–3 years to graduate operators; deconsolidation occurs upon graduation; aiming to refranchise 5–100 restaurants in 2025, about half via the program .
  • Tim Hortons loyalty/cold beverages: High incrementality from protein lattes; iced latte platform grew well into double digits; kiosks targeting ~800 locations by year end .
  • Macro tone: U.S. October start “choppier,” but management did not change plans and emphasized global diversification (≈70% AOI outside U.S.) .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus*: Revenues $2.449B vs $2.390B (beat); Adjusted EPS $1.03 vs ~$1.00 (beat); EBITDA consensus ~$795M vs company-reported Adjusted EBITDA $794M (in line, definition differences). Management reiterated ≥8% organic AOI growth for 2025, with Q4 aided by lapping prior-year ad fund and bad-debt items . Consensus metrics marked with asterisk are from S&P Global estimates.*
  • Potential estimate revisions: International strength and TH margin discipline may support upward adjustments to revenue/EPS run-rate, while BK U.S. beef costs warrant caution on near-term restaurant-level margin assumptions; reduced 2025 capex/cash inducements (“around $400M”) modestly positive for FCF modeling .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Broad-based beat with quality: TH and INTL delivered strong comps/AOI, BK U.S. continues to outperform category; PLK remains the main laggard .
  • Cost discipline + mix driving operating leverage: Segment G&A reductions and non-recurrence of BK-specific expenses supported AOI and EPS upside .
  • Beef inflation is transitory in management’s view; watch franchisee margins and remodel cadence in 1H26 as costs normalize .
  • Balance sheet and cash returns: Net leverage improved to 4.4x; dividend maintained at $0.62/share; capex/cash inducements trimmed to ~$400M, supportive for FCF .
  • Simplification catalyst: Progress on refranchising and BK China sale should de-risk the RH drag and improve capital-light profile over 2026+ .
  • Near-term trading setup: Beats, reaffirmed 8%+ organic AOI growth and cleaner capex guide are supportive; monitor U.S. demand cadence into Q4 and PLK operational fixes .

Sources and Citations:

  • Q3 2025 press release and detailed financials, segments, non-GAAP reconciliations .
  • Form 8‑K furnishing the Q3 press release and exhibits .
  • Q3 2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A) .
  • Prior quarters’ press releases for trend context: Q2 2025 ; Q1 2025 .
  • S&P Global consensus (S&P Global disclaimer): Revenue, EPS, and EBITDA consensus figures marked with asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global via GetEstimates tool; values may reflect differing metric definitions relative to company-reported non-GAAP measures.*